Airbus: Deliveries under scrutiny
UBS maintains its "buy" rating on the European planemaker but trims its price target from 215 to 210 EUR. The broker justifies this revision by lowering its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for the 2026-2028 period, following a first quarter deemed "significantly weaker than expected." Notably, the analyst lowered the 2026 delivery estimate from 870 to 850 units, citing persistent difficulties in resolving a panel-related issue.
The research house also highlights a "downside risk" for Q1 results, with adjusted EBIT estimated at just 64 million euros, far below the consensus of 950 million euros. The note indicates that this underperformance is explained by a high cost base due to investments ahead of the production ramp-up.
The stock has declined by approximately 13% year-to-date.

Safran: Guidance deemed cautious
The rating remains "neutral" with the target price lowered from 340 to 335 EUR. The broker indicates it does not expect a major short-term catalyst, believing that the first quarter should not trigger a revision of the group's outlook.
Despite high geopolitical uncertainty, UBS is making only "very modest cuts" to its medium-term estimates for the Propulsion division, having already implemented changes last March. According to the analyst, Safran is unlikely to modify its 2026 outlook as initial targets are already perceived as "conservative." The broker anticipates solid 20% growth in spare parts for the first quarter, driven primarily by pricing and work scope rather than flight hours.
The stock has gained over 6% since the start of the year.

Thales: A catalyst named "Defense"
UBS reaffirms its "buy" recommendation and raises its price target from 380 to 390 EUR. The group could benefit from a positive surprise in order intake within the Defense & Security division, driven by Middle Eastern clients. The broker highlights significant upside potential, with a high expected total return combining capital appreciation and dividends.
UBS adds that visibility remains high thanks to a robust backlog, recently illustrated by several contracts in defense and aerospace activities.
It is also worth noting that the company is at the forefront to benefit from the potentially expanded French defense budget.
The stock has recorded an increase of around 13% year-to-date.

Rolls-Royce: No major surprises on the horizon
Still "buy" on Rolls-Royce, UBS slightly reduces its price target from 15.50 to 15 GBP. The broker does not anticipate a short-term catalyst, estimating that the Q1 publication should primarily confirm annual targets without major surprises.
The note highlights continued solid momentum in engine aftermarket, despite engine flight hours (EFH) expected to be slightly lower due to disruptions related to the conflict in the Middle East. The research house specifies that the lower price target mainly reflects a valuation effect linked to the contraction of sector multiples rather than a fundamental deterioration of prospects.
The stock has climbed more than 11% since the start of the year.

BAE Systems: Electronic warfare appeals
UBS raises its price target from 26 to 26.50 GBP while remaining at "buy." The analyst anticipates a Q1 trading update in line with expectations in May and notes that the group should "reiterate its 2026 outlook." The research house positions itself at the top of the sales growth forecast range (7-9%) and above consensus for operating profit and EPS. The price target increase is justified by a 3% upward revision of 2026 order estimates, driven by the "Electronic Systems" and "Air" divisions. The note states that "increased uncertainty means high demand" and signals further growth potential linked to the geopolitical context in the Middle East.
The stock has gained nearly 28% since January 1st.

Leonardo: Leadership uncertainty
The opinion remains "neutral" although the price target rises from 60 to 64 EUR. The broker justifies this hike through a series of updates to its financial model, notably integrating the new 2026-2030 Industrial Plan targets released last March. Consequently, the analyst has revised 2030 EPS estimates upward by 9% and free operating cash flow (FOCF) by 15%.
The research house nevertheless emphasizes that "uncertainty clouds the quarter," namely the possible replacement of CEO Roberto Cingolani at the next annual general meeting. This potential departure raises questions regarding the sustainability of the current strategy, particularly concerning the Michelangelo execution project and shareholder return policy.
The company's stock has gained nearly 14% year-to-date.

Saab: Optimism prevails
UBS maintains its "buy" recommendation and increases its target from 760 to 780 SEK. The analyst sits 5% above consensus for the group's EBIT, thanks to more optimistic sales forecasts for the "Dynamics" and "Surveillance" divisions.
The target price hike also stems from a financial model update including currency effects and evolving sector valuation multiples. The research house forecasts cash consumption of 498 MSEK for the quarter, a level equivalent to the previous fiscal year. Furthermore, UBS anticipates a lower level of order intake for the quarter, in the absence of major contracts identified during the period.
The stock is up 12% since the start of the fiscal year.

MTU Aero Engines: Penalized by declining margins
"Neutral" recommendation confirmed by UBS, with a price target lowered from 400 to 350 EUR. This revision is explained by lower margin forecasts for the OEM business through 2030 and the expected normalization of the exceptional situation regarding GTF engines (groundings and spare engine pricing). The analyst now forecasts a linear decline in EBIT margin to 27% by 2030, a level below the 28-30% target range communicated by the group. The note also highlights that cyclical aftermarket drivers should normalize over the decade, a phenomenon "exacerbated by high fuel prices."
The stock has retreated 7% year-to-date.

Theon International: Toward earnings growth
UBS confirms its "buy" rating on the stock and raises its price target from 40 to 45 EUR. The research house justifies this increase by an update to its financial model, including a 6% hike in its 2030 EPS estimate following annual results and "recent market strength." The analyst now forecasts an EPS of 1.53 EUR for 2026, compared to 1.49 EUR previously.
Despite expectations of "seasonally weak" profitability in the first quarter due to an unfavorable product mix, the broker anticipates positive commentary confirming the achievement of the upper end of revenue targets (570-600 MEUR). The research house is betting on 36% year-on-year sales growth for the quarter, driven by usual seasonal effects.
The stock has gained over 20% since the start of the year.