Bitcoin is deep into its third 30 % correction of the cycle. After touching $89,310 on November 18, it now trades near $91,500. The Fear & Greed Index has collapsed to 10 —the lowest reading of the year — and sentiment feels entirely flushed.
The alarm bells are understandable. Bitcoin has now broken levels it never lost earlier in the cycle. It has closed multiple times below three major thresholds: the Short-Term Holder realized price at $110,000, the 200-day moving average at $110,000, and the 365-day moving average at $102,000. In every previous cycle — 2014, 2018, 2022 — simultaneously losing these three levels marked the beginning of a multi-year bear market. That doesn’t guarantee we are in one now, but the risk is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Technically, the picture is fragile indeed. On the weekly chart, BTC has slipped below the lower Bollinger Band, with the stochastic oscillator deeply oversold, the MACD negative, and the RSI drifting toward 30. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA has crossed below the 200-day — the classic death cross that signals fading momentum, even if it typically lags price.
Support sits at $91,000–$90,000, with a stronger zone at $85,000–$84,000. Resistance remains at $96,000 and the psychological $100,000.
Derivatives market echoes the sentiment. Thomas Young of Rumjog consultancy points out that bitcoin futures briefly flipped into backwardation — a situation where spot trades above futures. It’s rare and usually appears during stress events, forced de-risking, or capitulation. It is rare and generally emerges during stress, forced unwinding, or capitulation. Historically, backwardation has been a contrarian signal: either a reversal as panic exhausts, or a final washout that marks the bottom of the move.
Context matters, though. In past cycles, these breakdowns followed vertical blow-off tops and months of euphoric distribution. Nothing like that occurred this time. There was no $200k mania, no media frenzy, no retail stampede. The ~$126k peak (if it was the peak) formed after a slow, institution-led grind. This is potentially good news for bitcoin, as institutions don’t appear ready to dump it just yet.
One concern during this correction has been heavy selling from early bitcoin whales — entities holding at least 1,000 BTC. As Capriole fund’s Charles Edwards notes, 2025 has been a year where long-dormant whales, holding coins for seven years or more, have begun cashing out.
Historically, when long-term whales sold in size, steeper declines usually followed. This cycle, however, a new dynamic is at play: large institutional buyers are absorbing the supply.
CryptoQuant’s CEO argues that the sell-off reflects old holders rotating into new institutional ones. OG whales have been selling, but ETFs, MSTR, corporate treasuries, sovereign funds, pension funds, and multi-asset managers now provide constant inflows. “The cycle theory is dead until these liquidity channels stop running,” he writes.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows the whale count spiking at the fastest pace since early 2024. After bottoming on October 26, whale numbers jumped from 1,353 to 1,391, signaling a wave of newly formed large holders.
Fresh liquidity continues to flow. Strategy Inc. (MSTR) launched its new euro-denominated 10% preferred stock, STRE, on November 3. Initially targeting €350m, the company ultimately raised $700m, extending its corporate-credit engine into Europe and reinforcing bitcoin-linked flows. El Salvador also joined the dip-buyers, adding another $100m to its national treasury on November 17.
The market is clearly stressed. It is equally clear that large institutions are accumulating into that stress. As early adopters give way to Wall Street, the structure of the bitcoin market and the nature of its cycles are evolving.
