In the markets, the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, has played out in a fairly classic pattern: stocks pull back, safe havens are sought and oil has surged.
A backdrop that is obviously benefiting oil stocks. And this war comes as the moves of recent weeks had already favored this segment of the market.
Indeed, fears of disruption from AI have dominated in recent weeks, triggering pullbacks across several sectors: software, real estate services, private equity… In that context, investors were looking for havens, for stocks whose business models would not be called into question by AI. Hence a rotation toward more traditional parts of the economy (energy, utilities, consumer staples).
At the same time, the renewed rise in geopolitical tensions had already pushed oil prices higher ahead of the outbreak of the conflict involving Iran. Brent was already up 20% this year, before the start of the US-Israeli operation.
As a result, energy is by far the best-performing sector since the start of the year. The Stoxx 600 Energy index is up 21% since January 1 st, while the Stoxx 600 is up just 3% after the early-week pullback.
The contrast is even sharper in the United States. The S&P 500 Energy index is up 27% in 2026, while the S&P 500 is around flat. Several stocks in the sector even hit record highs on Monday: Shell and TotalEnergies in Europe, Chevron and ExxonMobil in the United States.
Heatmap - Breakdown of ETF iShares Core S&P 500 ETF - USD
Sector performance since January 1 for the S&P 500. Source: MarketScreener
It is worth noting that these records come as the price of a barrel has, for several quarters, been at historically moderate levels. For the past few hours, Brent has been steady at around $80 a barrel, which remains far below the levels seen during past crises. In 2022, the outbreak of the war in Ukraine sent Brent soaring to $138.
