Geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, concerns about deficits, inflation... there is no shortage of arguments in favor of a rise in gold... and this is by all means the case.
The yellow metal has even been setting new records in recent months. For those who follow the financial markets, we comment on this rise almost every week.
And as it continues to climb, its performance is quite spectacular: +39% in 2025, +111% in three years. This is an impressive performance for an asset considered a safe haven. Over the same period, the Nasdaq rose by "only" 91%.
The 1980 peak in the rearview mirror
But to truly measure the cost of gold over time, its price must be adjusted for inflation. Why? Because rising prices cause currency to lose value over time.
When we adjust the price of gold for inflation, we see that the price per ounce peaked in January 1980. At the time, the fall of the dollar, peak inflation, and recession had propelled gold to $850.
$850 in 1980 is worth $3,590 today. The "real" peak in gold prices has therefore only been exceeded very recently.
Gold price (yellow) and inflation-adjusted gold price (black). Source: Bloomberg
On the way to $5,000?
The rise in gold prices over the past few months has been impressive, but it may not be over yet. On the one hand, this is because the Fed is expected to cut rates in the coming months. As gold is a non-yielding asset, the lower rates are, the more attractive it becomes.
Secondly, Donald Trump's attacks on the Fed threaten its independence and ultimately weaken the dollar. If this scenario materializes, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the price of gold could climb to $5,000 per ounce.
