Power has always shaped human affairs. What has changed is the tone. The long phase in which power politics were dressed up in careful language and managed through polite forums is fading. In its place is something blunter, louder and less rehearsed. Many leaders appear surprised by this shift, largely because they have never had to manage it before.

The consequences are visible almost everywhere. The United States set the tone early in the year by ousting Nicolás Maduro, signaling a return to muscular interventionism. Cuba and Colombia have been warned that Washington's patience with crime and drug trafficking spilling onto American soil is limited. Iran, weakened by internal unrest and violent crackdowns on protesters, looks increasingly brittle. American officials are openly weighing responses that range from cyber operations to sanctions and even military strikes, while Tehran insists it is keeping communication channels open.

Then there is Greenland. Once a geopolitical afterthought, it is now openly claimed by Washington, prompting Germany and the UK to discuss a NATO mission to signal that Europe has not quietly stepped aside. Further east, the Trump administration's assertive posture has revived old anxieties around Taiwan, long a focal point of Chinese ambition. The pattern is consistent: major powers are competing more openly for control over territory, technology and resources.

Markets have noticed. Two trends stand out. Defense companies are enjoying a genuine boom, one that looks structural rather than tied to any single conflict such as Ukraine. Even optimists struggle to sketch a convincing path back to a calmer world. At the same time, commodities - especially metal - are back at the centre of economic strategy. Today's meeting of G7 finance ministers is focused squarely on rare minerals, with Australia and India invited as special guests. The aim is clear: to loosen China's grip on rare earths and the supply chains that depend on them.

Gold, the asset of last resort, has responded accordingly. Prices have surged to fresh all-time highs, breaking above $4,600 an ounce in New York trading. Silver has raced even faster, perhaps too fast, with some analysts calling its outperformance excessive. Copper is holding above $13,000 a tonne amid worries about tight supply and tariffs.

Meanwhile, the standoff between the White House and the Federal Reserve has entered uncharted territory. The Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, over his congressional testimony on renovations to the central bank's headquarters. Mr Powell has responded with unusual force, calling the probe a pretext for President Donald Trump's long-running campaign to bully the Fed into cutting interest rates.

For years Mr Powell avoided direct confrontation. That restraint is gone. The threat of indictment has rattled investors and revived old fears about the independence of the world's most powerful central bank. Some analysts think Fed officials may now be more inclined to delay rate cuts simply to defend the institution. Others note that policy decisions are still likely to follow the data, even as the political noise grows louder.

The data themselves are sending mixed signals. Friday's employment figures were reassuring enough to push back expectations of an imminent rate cut. Markets now see just a 29% chance of easing in March, down from 44% a week earlier. Inflation figures for December, due on Tuesday, will be closely watched. So will Germany's full-year GDP numbers on Thursday, offering a read on Europe's economic stamina.

Politics continues to intrude. The Supreme Court declined last week to rule on the constitutionality of certain tariffs, though it may yet weigh in during its next session.

Mr Trump has floated a one-year cap on credit-card interest rates at 10%, sending bank and consumer-finance stocks sharply lower. Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, American Express and several specialist lenders have all felt the chill.

Earnings season is beginning against this unsettled backdrop. JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York open proceedings in America, followed by a parade of other financial firms. In Europe, Sika reports first, with luxury investors waiting for Compagnie Financière Richemont later in the week. Elsewhere in corporate news, Allegiant Travel has agreed to buy Sun Country Airlines for about $1.1bn as budget carriers struggle against larger rivals. Heineken is searching for a new chief executive amid falling beer sales. Abivax's shares have leapt on reports that Eli Lilly is considering a €15bn bid. Walmart, freshly moved to the Nasdaq, is set to join the Nasdaq-100 index.

Energy markets are no calmer. Oil prices have slipped despite supply risks linked to Iran and uncertainty over Venezuelan exports. Mr Trump has suggested he might block Exxon Mobil from investing there, having declared the country "uninvestable" in practice if not in name. Goldman Sachs expects excess supply to keep oil prices subdued this year before a modest recovery in 2027.

Across Asia-Pacific, the mood is varied. The yen has weakened on rumours of snap elections in Japan, where markets are closed for a holiday. Chinese shares are rising, led by Hong Kong. South Korea and Taiwan are buoyed by technology stocks. India is down, Australia up. Europe is mixed, while in the US, futures on The Dow Jones fell by 0.69%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.57% and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.78%.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,792
  • Gold: $4,590
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.02 (WTI) $58.76
  • United States 10 years: 4.20%
  • BITCOIN: $90,337

In corporate news:

  • Walmart and Google are launching an AI-assisted shopping feature through Google's Gemini, offering personalized recommendations and integration with Sam's Club.
  • Exelixis expects 2026 revenue between $2.53 billion and $2.63 billion, slightly below analysts' estimates, but cited strong momentum from Cabometyx sales.
  • Teva Pharmaceutical Industries reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and projects flat or slightly lower revenue in 2026, with modest growth expected in 2027.
  • XPeng has hired JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley to prepare a Hong Kong IPO for its flying car subsidiary, Xpeng Aeroht.
  • A wave of CEO changes has swept global consumer goods firms including Walmart, Nestlé, Unilever, and Coca-Cola, as the sector faces economic pressures and strategic realignments.
  • Honeywell launched a new AI-powered retail platform in collaboration with Google Cloud, aimed at enhancing in-store shopping experiences.
  • Kroger is rolling out a nationwide AI shopping assistant using Google Cloud's Gemini technology to improve customer experience and call center productivity.
  • Edwards Lifesciences canceled its acquisition of JenaValve Technology after a U.S. court ruling, and raised its 2026 earnings outlook.
  • Guardant Health reported a 39% year-over-year increase in preliminary Q4 revenue to $280 million, driven by strong demand for its cancer testing services.
  • Natera posted a preliminary Q4 revenue of $660 million, exceeding expectations and projecting $2.3 billion in 2025 revenue.
  • Tempus AI reported 83% growth in preliminary Q4 revenue to $367 million, led by a 121% increase in diagnostics revenue.
  • Apple led the global smartphone market in 2025 with a 20% share, ahead of Samsung and Xiaomi, according to Counterpoint Research.
  • India is proposing stringent smartphone security rules, including mandatory source code disclosure, prompting resistance from firms like Apple, Samsung, and Google.
  • Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to decline in 2026 due to a supply surplus, maintaining forecasts of $56 for Brent and $52 for WTI.
  • Newmont shares hit a record high after gold prices soared to a new peak, lifting other miners like Northern Star Resources and Regis Resources.
  • Alibaba's logistics unit Cainiao launched a U.S.-Mexico cross-border service to strengthen its Americas e-commerce logistics network.
  • Corem Property will sell a plot in New York, with a negative impact of around $95 million on its net income.
  • Exxon says it is ready to consider a return to Venezuela, but its CEO remains cautious, similar to leaders of other major U.S. oil companies.
  • Donald Trump has demanded that credit card companies (Visa, Amex, Mastercard, etc.) cap their interest rates at 10% by January 20, but experts note such a move would require Congressional action and has no clear enforcement mechanism yet.
  • Prudential Financial is reportedly considering selling its Indian asset management business, according to Bloomberg.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Airbnb, Inc.: B Riley Securities Inc. upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 140 to USD 170.
  • Amkor Technology, Inc.: UBS initiates coverage with a neutral rating and a target price of USD 55.
  • Applied Materials, Inc.: Susquehanna upgrades to positive from neutral and raises the target price from USD 180 to USD 400.
  • Brunswick Corporation: Texas Capital downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from USD 84 to USD 90.
  • Bxp, Inc.: Mizuho Securities upgrades to outperform from dropped coverage and reduces the target price from USD 115 to USD 79.
  • Onemain Holdings, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 59 to USD 65.
  • Slm Corporation: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 29 to USD 25.
  • Alcoa: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 55 to USD 75.
  • Coinbase Global, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 367 to USD 268.
  • Commercial Metals Company: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 65 to USD 85.
  • Costar Group, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 100 to USD 75.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 48 to USD 67.
  • Ge Vernova Inc.: GLJ Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 805 to USD 1087.
  • Kla Corporation: Susquehanna maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 1125 to USD 1500.
  • Lam Research Corporation: Bernstein maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 175 to USD 225.
  • Teradyne, Inc.: Susquehanna maintains its positive recommendation and raises the target price from USD 215 to USD 275.