Markets awoke Friday to another tremor from President Trump's ever-expanding trade war—this time aimed squarely at Canada. In a letter released late Thursday, the White House announced a 35% tariff on all Canadian imports effective August 1. Trump also indicated that a similar notice would reach the European Union by week's end, expanding his campaign of protectionism just as markets had begun to find their footing. U.S. futures wobbled in early trading—Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures dropped nearly 1% before settling to a 0.4% to 0.5% decline. European indices followed suit, with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.8%. Trump, frustrated by the lack of global compliance, also dangled a blanket 15–20% tariff once again. 

Currency markets reacted swiftly. The U.S. dollar climbed against the Canadian loonie and the euro. The reaction, however, was measured, reflecting a deeper market sentiment that has grown desensitized to presidential brinkmanship. As with earlier tariff salvos, the real questions are about follow-through and scope.

Meanwhile, the broader equity mood remains surprisingly upbeat. Nvidia's historic climb past a $4 trillion market cap helped push Wall Street indexes to fresh records just the day before. Delta's strong quarterly report recently boosted cyclical stocks. And Bitcoin stole the spotlight with a 3.8% surge to a record high of 117,880 dollars, a move that may speak less to tech exuberance and more to investors hedging against political risk.

Investors now turn their eyes to corporate America's second-quarter earnings, which kick off next week. JPMorgan Chase reports Tuesday, setting the tone for what may be the most scrutinized reporting season since tariffs returned to the front page in April. Analysts are watching not just the numbers, but the narrative—how companies are responding, adapting, or suffering under the weight of shifting trade dynamics.

Of course, Trump's mercurial trade policy still looms. His self-imposed July 9 deadline to finalize trade deals passed with more sound than fury. Negotiations with Japan and South Korea are sluggish. Mexico has vanished from the radar. But the market remains resilient overall.

Behind this bravado lies Wall Street's real confidence: the Federal Reserve. Officials have made clear that monetary easing isn't off the table. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly still anticipates two rate cuts this year. Even the more hawkish Christopher Waller is eyeing a July move. Investors take comfort in this safety net, believing the Fed will step in if things get too hairy.

In corporate America, Levi Strauss delighted with a 7.2% stock pop after raising its outlook. Meanwhile, the quiet drama continues at Ben & Jerry's, where Unilever's appointment of a new CEO escalated tensions with the ice cream brand's famously defiant board. And in the weight-loss drug wars, CVS's decision to prioritize Wegovy over Zepbound gave a surprise edge to Novo Nordisk over Eli Lilly, despite Zepbound's market dominance.

Yet perhaps the most surprising twist came not from Wall Street, but from Kuala Lumpur. There, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and emerged claiming a new opening for peace talks in Ukraine. Whether this is substance or political theater remains unclear—but in a week of loud threats and soft earnings, it was the rare moment of quiet diplomacy.

This morning, Asian markets remained steady. Even China saw modest gains.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: the harmonized CPI of the euro area and the CPI in Germany; the monthly GDP in the United Kingdom; the harmonized CPI of the euro area in France; the hourly wage rate for permanent employees in Canada; the federal budget balance in the United States. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,810
  • Gold: $3,347
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $69.27 (WTI) $67.28
  • United States 10 years: 4.39%
  • BITCOIN: $117,890

In corporate news:

  • Capricor Therapeutics shares plunged by 50% after the FDA rejected its Deramiocel treatment application for Duchenne muscular dystrophy, citing insufficient evidence of effectiveness.
  • CarMax reported a 33% drop in quarterly profit due to high interest rates and weak demand for used cars, as inflation-weary consumers postpone big-ticket purchases.
  • Unilever has appointed Jochanan Senf as the new CEO of Ben & Jerry's amid fresh legal tensions, following the dismissal of his predecessor over the brand's outspoken political activism.
  • Performance Food Group is attracting takeover interest from US Foods, potentially leading to a major food distribution merger.
  • Gold prices rose as investors sought safe-haven assets amid President Trump's aggressive new tariffs against Canada and other countries.
  • Oil prices climbed on expectations of U.S. sanctions against Russia and a potential OPEC+ output hike pause, despite IEA forecasting a supply surplus this year.
  • Southern Company appointed David Poroch as its new CFO as Daniel Tucker prepares for retirement.
  • Levi Strauss raised its annual forecast and saw a 7% stock jump after strong global denim demand helped offset U.S. tariff impacts.
  • Nvidia is partnering with Indonesia to launch the country's first AI Center of Excellence to support digital transformation and AI workforce training.
  • The NHTSA opened a recall investigation into over 27,000 Polestar 2 vehicles due to unresolved rear-view camera issues.
  • RealSense, spun out from Intel, secured $50 million to expand its AI vision systems in robotics and security.
  • The FDA approved Merck's Bravecto Quantum, a once-a-year injection protecting dogs from fleas and ticks.
  • Merck also submitted a new HIV treatment (DOR/ISL) for FDA review, aiming for once-daily oral therapy for virologically stable patients.
  • Norwegian Air beat earnings expectations and announced its first dividend ever, driven by high post-pandemic travel demand.
  • Copper prices declined as Trump's 50% tariff raised fears over weakening U.S. demand, while Chinese smelters withheld processing fee guidance for a second quarter.
  • The IEA warned that despite projected oversupply, the global oil market is tighter than it appears due to high seasonal refinery demand.
  • Warehouse REIT's board backed Blackstone's $664 million takeover bid, abandoning support for Tritax's competing offer.
  • Saba Capital invests significantly in BlackRock Throgmorton Trust.
  • Flutter Entertainment nears $2 billion deal to acquire additional 5% stake in FanDuel.
  • Tesla to open first store in India and applies for robotaxi certification in Arizona.
  • Google to discount cloud services for US government and introduces new Gemini feature.
  • Delta boosts Wall Street sentiment with positive forecast.
  • Conagra Brands forecasts downbeat annual profit due to US tariffs.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Agree Realty Corporation: Morgan Stanley downgrades to equalwt from overwt with a target price of USD 75.
  • Newmont Corporation: Morgans Financial Limited upgrades to accumulate from add with a price target raised from AUD 97 to AUD 103.
  • Northern Trust Corporation: Keefe Bruyette & Woods downgrades to underperform from market perform with a target price raised from USD 103 to USD 120.
  • Phillips 66: Scotiabank downgrades to sector perform from sector outperform with a target price of USD 133.
  • Te Connectivity Plc: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 150 to USD 200.
  • Texas Instruments Incorporated: TD Cowen upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 200 to USD 245.
  • Amd (Advanced Micro Devices): TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 115 to USD 165.
  • American Express Company: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from 260 to USD 342.
  • Apa Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector perform recommendation with a price target raised from 14 to USD 22.
  • Axon Enterprise, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight rating and raises the target price from USD 695 to USD 885.
  • Centene Corporation: Mizuho Securities maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 71 to USD 40.
  • Cloudflare, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight rating and raises the target price from USD 150 to USD 225.
  • Flex Ltd.: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 51 to USD 64.
  • Fluor Corporation: Baird maintains a neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 41 to USD 55.
  • Fortive Corporation: Baird maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 82 to USD 62.
  • Hf Sinclair Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation with a price target raised from 49 to USD 61.
  • Lear Corporation: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target raised from 88 to USD 112.
  • Levi Strauss & Co.: JP Morgan maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from 18 to USD 23.
  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Scotiabank maintains its sector outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 147 to USD 180.
  • Microchip Technology, Inc.: TD Cowen maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 55 to USD 75.
  • Netflix, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 1150 to USD 1400.
  • On Semiconductor Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 44 to USD 68.
  • Roblox Corporation: Citigroup maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from USD 100 to USD 123.
  • Spotify Technology S.a.: KeyBanc Capital Markets maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 640 to USD 860.