After the sharp bouts of volatility seen over the last 48 hours, European indices appear to be catching their breath this morning with contained gains: Paris, London, and Frankfurt are edging up between 0.1% and 0.2%.
As negotiations between Washington and Tehran are scheduled to begin today, Donald Trump does not seem to have buried the hatchet. He claimed yesterday that the time spent in talks would allow his armed forces to prepare, rest, and "in reality, anticipate their next conquest." For its part, the Islamic Republic reported that the meetings will take place "in total mistrust of the American side."

Strait of Hormuz near a standstill
The Strait of Hormuz remains largely deserted. Specialized maritime tracking sites reported only 9 vessel passages over the last 24 hours. Shipping traffic is therefore still nearly at a standstill despite the ceasefire. Analysts at Commerzbank believe this situation could persist, as Iran maintains strategic leverage over this essential corridor for global trade.
"Given that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz blocks the movement of a significant portion of global oil and fertilizer flows, a fairly rapid rise in food prices could be expected, at least due to increased transport and refrigeration costs," warns Bastien Drut, Head of Strategy and Economic Research at CPR AM.

Furthermore, it should be noted that weapons are still doing the talking in the Middle East, with Israel heavily bombing Lebanon and Hezbollah positions. In this tense context, crude prices are ticking up again, with WTI up 1.2% and Brent up 1.5%, at 99 USD and 98 USD per barrel respectively, managing to stay below the symbolic 100 USD mark. However, the VIX has dipped back below the 20-point threshold, signaling a clear retreat in market stress.

Stocks on the move
The CAC 40 index is being driven this morning by STMicro (+2.5%) and Publicis (+1.3%). Capgemini completes the podium with a 1% gain.
On the SBF 120, Sodexo is tumbling nearly 15% following the publication of an adjusted net income down 36.7% to 285 MEUR for the first half, while revenue decreased by 3.7% to 12 BnEUR.

Getlink reported mixed traffic figures for March: Le Shuttle Freight transported 104,449 trucks last month, a 1% decrease compared to March 2025. Over the first three months of the year, nearly 295,000 trucks crossed the Channel aboard its shuttles, representing a 2% decline.

German inflation in line with expectations

In economic data, the consumer price index in Germany rose by 1.1% between February and March, in line with expectations, following a 0.2% increase the previous month. On an annual basis, inflation showed a 2.7% increase, matching the consensus, after 1.9% the previous month.
Markets will look ahead to several US statistics this afternoon, including inflation (expected at 2:30 PM), the UMich consumer sentiment index (4:00 PM), and factory orders (4:00 PM).