Futures for the Dow Jones dropped about 0.82%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.61%, and Nasdaq 100 futures fell roughly 1.0% after the job report landed. Oil is also at the center of it all , because the war involving Iran has disrupted one of the most sensitive arteries of global trade. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a crawl as the fighting intensifies, pushing crude prices to their highest levels since last summer. The consequences travel quickly. Airlines, which have an unfortunate habit of running on jet fuel, have already felt the pressure, with airline stocks sliding as the cost of energy climbs.

Energy ministers in the Gulf have been blunt about what may come next. Even if a ceasefire arrived tomorrow, restoring normal gas flows could take weeks or months. Some analysts now whisper a number that spooks everyone: $150 oil. That scenario is not yet the base case, but it is close enough to reality that investors cannot ignore it.

And oil, as it often does, brings inflation back into the conversation. Just a few weeks ago, markets were comfortably anticipating that the Federal Reserve might begin cutting interest rates by summer. That optimism has been steadily revised. Stronger economic data combined with rising crude prices have pushed expectations for the first rate cut further out, perhaps to October. The central bank, for its part, seems in no hurry. When inflation risks are rising, patience becomes a virtue.

This is why Friday's jobs report carried such weight. The data showed nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, far below expectations for an increase of about 55,000. The unemployment rate edged up to 4.4%, slightly above the 4.3% economists had forecast. Revisions also subtracted 69,000 jobs from the previous two months, reinforcing the sense that the labor market may be losing momentum.

The numbers offered a mixed picture for investors trying to judge the path of monetary policy. A softer labor market could revive hopes that the Federal Reserve may eventually feel comfortable lowering interest rates. At the same time, a sudden drop in hiring raises a different concern: that economic growth could be slowing more quickly than expected.

Markets reacted cautiously. Futures slipped immediately after the release as investors weighed whether weaker job creation signals an approaching slowdown or simply reflects volatility in monthly data. Retail sales data offered a slightly less negative signal, falling 0.2% in January, a smaller decline than the 0.3% economists had expected.

Yet amid the gloom, American markets have held up better than many of their global counterparts this week. European equities have fallen more sharply, and Asian markets have swung wildly with every geopolitical headline. The S&P 500, by contrast, has slipped only modestly. Part of that resilience comes from a structural shift that would have sounded improbable two decades ago: the United States is now a net exporter of oil. Energy shocks still hurt, but they do not land quite as brutally as they once did.

Technology has also offered a reminder that not all economic stories revolve around oil tankers and missile strikes. Semiconductor firm Marvell soared in premarket trading after projecting strong revenue growth driven by demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure. The AI boom, which has fueled markets for several years, has not disappeared simply because geopolitics returned to the headlines. Still, even that narrative is beginning to look less straightforward. Washington is now debating new rules that could tighten control over the export of advanced AI chips, a move that could reshape global tech supply chains.

The war itself continues to expand across the region. Israel has intensified strikes on Iranian targets, while Tehran has responded with attacks across multiple fronts. Tankers have been stranded, shipping routes suspended, and investors forced to reconsider how stable the Persian Gulf really is.

The United States has tried to push back against the surge in oil prices through a mix of emergency measures and quiet diplomacy. Officials have tapped strategic reserves, explored ways to stabilize futures markets, and even temporarily allowed Russian oil shipments to reach India in an effort to ease global supply pressure. Saudi Arabia has also reorganized its logistics to bypass the bottleneck at Hormuz where possible. These interventions briefly nudged crude prices lower overnight, though the relief proved fleeting.

Today also happens to mark the 100th birthday of former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, who spent nearly two decades trying to manage the delicate balance between growth, inflation, and financial stability. His tenure was praised for navigating crises, though it later attracted criticism for policies that contributed to the housing bubble. The lesson, perhaps, is that economic stewardship always looks easier in hindsight than in real time.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the Halifax House Price Index in the United Kingdom; factory orders in Germany; ECB President Lagarde's speech in the Euro Area; In the United States, non-farm payrolls, average hourly earnings, unemployment rate, participation rate, retail sales, and business inventories; the Ivey PMI in Canada; Fed Hammack's speech in the United States and RBA Hauser's speech in Australia. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99.223
  • Gold: $5,088
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $88.80 (WTI) $85.89
  • United States 10 years: 4.16%
  • BITCOIN: $70,530

In corporate news:

  • BP plc: Chairman Albert Manifold reduced the company's board size to 10 directors from 13, according to the annual report.
  • Marvell Technology: Shares surged after the chipmaker forecast strong multi-year growth driven by rising demand for AI custom chips and data-center interconnect technologies. 
  • EQT: The private equity firm is reportedly interested in acquiring Norwegian shipping-technology company Navtor, which could be valued at about €350–500 million.
  • KKR: The investment firm agreed to acquire a 31% stake in South Korean renewable energy company SK Eternix, with the broader deal valuing a 43.5% stake at about 348 billion won.
  • Microsoft: The company will continue offering Anthropic's AI tools to customers for non-defense uses despite the Pentagon labeling the startup a supply-chain risk.
  • SoftBank: The group is seeking a bridge loan of up to $40 billion, largely to finance its investment in OpenAI.
  • Reliance Industries: Fuel cargoes from its Jamnagar refinery that were initially headed to Europe have been redirected to Asia as regional refining margins surge amid Middle East supply disruptions.
  • Pfizer: China approved the company's GLP-1 drug Enochlutide for long-term weight management in overweight or obese adults.
  • Nvidia, AMD: Draft U.S. rules could require government approval for exports of advanced AI chips, potentially tightening oversight of shipments abroad.
  • Baker Hughes: The company priced $9.98 billion in dollar- and euro-denominated senior notes to help finance its acquisition of Chart Industries.
  • Ford: The automaker is recalling about 1.74 million vehicles in the U.S. due to a rearview camera defect that may prevent images from displaying.
  • Medtronic: Its diabetes unit MiniMed raised about $560 million in a Nasdaq IPO priced at $20 per share, with Medtronic retaining roughly 90% ownership.
  • Waste Connections: The company priced a $600 million offering of senior notes due 2036 to help repay borrowings under its credit facility.
  • Humana: The insurer priced $1 billion of junior subordinated notes due 2056 to fund general corporate purposes.
  • JD.com: Shares jumped after the Chinese e-commerce group reported better-than-expected revenue and adjusted profit despite posting a quarterly net loss.
  • Foxconn: Chairman Young Liu warned a prolonged Iran conflict could drive oil toward $100 per barrel and raise global raw-material costs.
  • Advent is considering its options after its takeover bid was rejected by Senior plc.
  • Oracle is reportedly planning thousands of job cuts due to financial pressure from AI, according to Bloomberg.
  • The FDA approves Johnson & Johnson's blood cancer drug.
  • Nike will take $300 million in restructuring charges.
  • Intercontinental Exchange invests approximately $200 million in OKX.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Aes Corporation (The): Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 23 to USD 15.
  • Borgwarner Inc.: UBS upgrades to neutral from sell with a target price of USD 55.
  • Dow Inc.: JP Morgan upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 26 to USD 40.
  • Marvell Technology Group Ltd: KGI Securities Co Ltd upgrades to outperform from neutral and raises the target price from USD 105 to USD 110.
  • Zoetis Inc.: Nephron Research LLC downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 185 to USD 131.
  • Adobe Inc.: BNP Paribas maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 370 to USD 275.
  • Ciena Corporation: B Riley Securities Inc. maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 222 to USD 283.
  • Grab Holdings Limited: DBS Bank maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 7.55 to USD 5.93.
  • Guidewire Software, Inc.: Raymond James maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from USD 275 to USD 210.
  • Oracle Corporation: BNP Paribas maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 290 to USD 201.
  • Target Corporation: Daiwa Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 86 to USD 118.
  • Willscot Holdings Corporation: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 18 to USD 22.
  • Workday Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 326 to USD 259.