TotalEnergies SE (EPA:TTE) has agreed to acquire a 40% interest in Galp Energia SGPS SA’s (ELI:GALP) major offshore oil discovery in Namibia’s Orange Basin, the companies confirmed in statements this week. While the sale was expected, its structure reportedly took the market by surprise.

The acquisition centres on Petroleum Exploration Licence (PEL) 83, where in early 2024 Galp announced a significant light-oil discovery following the Mopane-1X and Mopane-2X wells, where appraisal drilling and commercial-scale assessments continue.

The French energy major will acquire the 40% stake in the Mopane discovery by granting the Portuguese integrated energy company a 10% interest in a block nearby and a 9.4% share of another Namibian deposit, Galp said on Tuesday (December 9).

According to Bloomberg, Galp’s shares sank as much as 15% in Lisbon, the most since the early days of the pandemic in March 2020, after the closely watched deal fell short of expectations of an outright acquisition for the stake with some cash paid upfront.

Analysts at UBS Group AG cited by the news agency last week had estimated the stake could attract about €200mn (around $217mn) in upfront cash, as well as roughly €3bn (about $3.25bn) in project costs that the buyer would carry on Galp’s behalf.

“The market was probably expecting a direct sale and not a swap,” Antonio Pedro Fonseca, head of trading at Banco Invest in Lisbon, is quoted as saying. “That explains the drop in Galp shares today.”

Galp retains operatorship of the block. The firm has been accelerating its subsurface studies and development planning after reporting high-quality reservoir sections and strong flow test indicators across Mopane’s stacked targets.

For TotalEnergies, the deal expands an already sizeable Namibian footprint. The company is operator of neighbouring acreage in the Orange Basin, where discoveries such as Venus and Cronos have highlighted the basin’s geological potential. The addition of the Mopane area consolidates its regional strategy and positions it for future development synergies.

Namibia has emerged as a hotspot for offshore exploration following multiple high-impact finds by Shell (LSE:SHEL), TotalEnergies and Galp since 2022. The government has said it expects the first commercialisation concepts for the basin to take shape over the next several years as appraisal data is gathered and operators evaluate export, FPSO and midstream options.

Galp said it will continue with appraisal and technical work to confirm reserves size, development feasibility and potential phasing. TotalEnergies said the acquisition aligns with its global upstream portfolio strategy focused on large, low-cost, low-emission deepwater projects.

According to Galp’s drilling updates, the Mopane-1X well encountered more than 200 metres of light-oil column, while Mopane-2X confirmed stacked reservoirs. It previously estimated that the complex could contain up to 10bn boe, based on early appraisal data released in April 2024.

The Orange Basin has seen at least 10 major discoveries since 2022, and government officials estimate cumulative offshore investment could exceed $40bn if multiple projects proceed to development.

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