While exports may have propped up industrial production growth, sectors that are more exposed to construction have yet to benefit meaningfully from the government's policy-based financial support, Citi economists said. They expect the fading impact of government subsidies and the "Double 11" shopping festival to have weighed on retail sales growth.
There is little hope that property data will be inspiring.
Economists at ING think that absent any stimulus, property prices likely extended recent declines. Property investment likely slowed further.
"The rollout of stimulus has been limited in recent months as the 2025 growth target looks fairly secure. But we could get more support measures announced in the coming months with 2026 seen as an important year - the start of the new Five-Year period," ING said.
Figures on foreign direct investment will also be in focus.
Australia and New Zealand
New Zealand reports third-quarter growth data on Thursday, which will show if momentum has rebounded after shrinking in the prior quarter.
The sharp contraction stifled hopes of a coming recovery and built pressure on the central bank to keep slashing interest rates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept loosening monetary settings at its last meeting in November in an effort to breathe life back into the moribund economy.
Capital Economics expects to see a solid bounce-back in the coming print, tipping a 1% on-quarter expansion, reversing the prior quarter's fall.
The services sector was probably the biggest contributor to growth last quarter, thanks to firm gains in retail and wholesale trade, CE economists said. "We also expect activity in the goods producing sector to have seen a leg up, in line with the latest data on manufacturing sales and construction activity."
If CE is right, then quarterly gross domestic product growth will be markedly stronger than the RBNZ's forecast of 0.4%. That could fuel speculation that it will start normalizing policy soon.
The CE economists note that markets are already fully pricing in two 25-basis-point rate hikes by end-2026. That said, they caution that GDP data have been rather volatile lately.
A trade print for November on Friday takes the temperature of exports in November, followed by ANZ's Business Outlook, a key gauge of sentiment.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia makes its final rate decision of the year Wednesday, which will probably see the central bank remain on pause as it looks to steady the rupiah.
The currency's woes have prompted analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, to change their call for the December meeting. They now think BI will hold its policy rate at 4.75%, whereas before they had anticipated a cut.
BI is unlikely to feel sufficiently comfortable to deliver another round of easing as the rupiah is still weakening against the dollar, Barclays economists said.
However, the Federal Reserve's own rate cut could be a factor too.
ANZ Research economists think there is scope for BI to lower rates on the back of the Fed move and as global risk sentiment continues to hold up.
At its prior meeting in November, BI Gov. Perry Warjiyo said the central bank is focused on stabilizing the rupiah and attracting foreign investment.
Thailand
The Bank of Thailand gathers on Wednesday, where it could deliver a rate cut at its final meeting of the year.
The Southeast Asian economy's long-running deflationary streak and slowing growth back the case for more easing, though political uncertainty could cloud the outlook for policymaking.
A string of weak economic data will keep the central bank under pressure to support growth, ANZ Research economists wrote in a report, expecting the BOT to cut after holding steady at its prior meeting.
Economists at UOB anticipate the same, noting that the central bank's policy focus has shifted toward sustaining growth.
Taiwan
At its rate-setting meeting on Thursday, Taiwan's central bank is widely expected to again stay on hold as solid growth and stable inflation let it stay in wait-and-see mode.
Taiwan's inflation has been well under the 2.0% threshold for some time, and its economic growth remains robust, supported by its semiconductor-related exports amid the AI boom.
Last month, the island nation lifted its 2025 gross domestic product growth forecast to 7.37% from 4.45%. If that prediction comes true, it would be the strongest growth Taiwan has seen for 15 years.
"The K-shaped growth trend with divergence between semiconductor sector and soft domestic demand likely means a policy option for a hike is off the table," Barclays economists said. They don't expect the central bank to start easing before the second quarter of 2026.
Singapore
Singapore will release non-oil domestic exports data for November on Wednesday that will be watched for signs of how the city-state's trade is faring in the era of tariffs.
After an unexpectedly strong October, Barclays economists expect to see a sequential pullback in the latest print.
Enterprise Singapore expects NODX growth this year at around 2.5%.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore's December survey of professional forecasters, due on Wednesday, could show another upgrade in expectations for the city-state's economic prospects.
In the prior survey, the median forecast for 2025 GDP growth increased to 2.4%.
Malaysia
Malaysia's trade ministry will release November trade data on Friday afternoon.
Markets will watch to see if demand for the country's electrical and electronics shipments can continue to support exports, after a better-than-expected print in October.
Malaysia's exports are expected to increase through the rest of 2025 as manufacturers ramp up shipments ahead of possible U.S. tariffs on semiconductors, CGS International economists Mas Aida Che Mansor and Nazmi Idrus said in a recent note.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-14-25 1614ET
