Projected Income Statement: Air Arabia

Forecast Balance Sheet: Air Arabia

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -604 -1,848 -2,967 -3,218 -2,417 -1,458 569 2,454
Change - -205.96% -60.55% -8.46% 24.89% 39.68% 139.03% 331.28%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 14/02/23 13/02/24 13/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1AED in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Air Arabia

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 52.46 256 378 579.7 2,328 1,509 1,386 1,199
Change - 388.03% 47.65% 53.33% 301.55% -35.17% -8.12% -13.5%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,896 1,932 1,975 1,699 532.8 -1,279 -49.5 -1,810
Change - 1.88% 2.23% -13.97% -68.64% -340.05% 96.13% -3,556.57%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 14/02/23 13/02/24 13/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1AED in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Air Arabia

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 39.8% 32.64% 31.43% 27.64% 24.31% 22.26% 24.51% 25.63%
EBIT Margin (%) 20.26% 20.55% 20.64% 17.86% 16.32% 15.46% 15.84% 16.18%
EBT Margin (%) 22.68% 23.31% 25.8% 24.13% 23.14% 21.05% 20.64% 19.41%
Net margin (%) 22.68% 23.31% 25.79% 22.02% 20.82% 18.37% 18.5% 17.75%
FCF margin (%) 59.74% 36.85% 32.92% 25.63% 6.85% -15.38% -0.53% -17.62%
FCF / Net Income (%) 263.38% 158.11% 127.65% 116.37% 32.89% -83.68% -2.86% -99.29%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.55% 8.81% 10.63% 9.77% 9.85% 8.3% 8.5% 7.85%
ROE 13.61% 18.7% 21.3% 18.95% 19.91% 16.11% 19.51% 19.98%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - 0.25x 0.93x
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - -11.49x -1.36x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 1.65% 4.88% 6.3% 8.74% 29.92% 18.14% 14.83% 11.67%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 4.15% 14.96% 20.05% 31.63% 123.06% 81.49% 60.51% 45.55%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 2.77% 13.25% 19.14% 34.12% 436.86% -117.98% -2,800.9% -66.26%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.4176 0.4688 0.5042 0.4883 0.6129 0.5148 0.7128 0.7676
Change - 12.27% 7.55% -3.15% 25.52% -16.01% 38.48% 7.67%
Dividend per Share 1 0.09 - 0.2 0.2 0.25 0.28 0.312 0.32
Change - - - 0% 25% 12% 11.43% 2.56%
Book Value Per Share 1 1.302 1.499 1.614 1.704 1.802 1.835 1.897 1.98
Change - 15.15% 7.7% 5.55% 5.75% 1.85% 3.35% 4.39%
EPS 1 0.15 0.26 0.33 0.31 0.35 0.3016 0.3656 0.3999
Change - 73.33% 26.92% -6.06% 12.9% -13.84% 21.24% 9.38%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 4,666,700 4,666,700 4,666,700 4,666,700 4,666,700 4,666,700 4,666,700 4,666,700
Announcement Date 15/02/22 14/02/23 13/02/24 13/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1AED
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 17.2x 14.2x
PBR 2.83x 2.74x
EV / Sales 2.74x 2.66x
Yield 5.38% 6%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
8
Last Close Price
5.200AED
Average target price
4.666AED
Spread / Average Target
-10.27%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise