Projected Income Statement: Aramco

Forecast Balance Sheet: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 322,044 184,269 -114,118 -93,169 89,462 136,378 165,468 145,630
Change - -42.78% -161.93% 18.36% 196.02% 52.44% 21.33% -11.99%
Announcement Date 22/03/21 21/03/22 13/03/23 10/03/24 04/03/25 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 101,030 119,645 141,161 158,308 188,890 194,325 199,059 184,418
Change - 18.43% 17.98% 12.15% 19.32% 2.88% 2.44% -7.36%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 184,267 402,956 556,991 379,506 319,998 296,695 275,025 333,997
Change - 118.68% 38.23% -31.86% -15.68% -7.28% -7.3% 21.44%
Announcement Date 22/03/21 21/03/22 13/03/23 10/03/24 04/03/25 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 53.31% 57.1% 54.52% 52% 48.72% 51.81% 53.68% 56.03%
EBIT Margin (%) 44.47% 51.4% 50.48% 46.77% 43% 45.49% 46.8% 49.4%
EBT Margin (%) 43.2% 51.24% 50.87% 47.84% 43.4% 45.26% 46.11% 47.92%
Net margin (%) 21.45% 26.32% 26.35% 24.39% 21.86% 22.88% 24.16% 25.82%
FCF margin (%) 21.37% 26.83% 24.58% 20.44% 17.76% 18.28% 18.04% 20.84%
FCF / Net Income (%) 99.64% 101.96% 93.26% 83.82% 81.24% 79.9% 74.66% 80.69%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.85% 19.39% 25.66% 18.22% 16.07% 15.1% 14.64% 15.53%
ROE 18.26% 37.56% 46.62% 30.35% 26.32% 24.9% 23.01% 24.83%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.7x 0.21x - - 0.1x 0.16x 0.2x 0.16x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.75x 0.46x - - 0.28x 0.46x 0.6x 0.44x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 11.72% 7.97% 6.23% 8.53% 10.48% 11.97% 13.06% 11.5%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 21.98% 13.95% 11.42% 16.4% 21.52% 23.11% 24.32% 20.53%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 54.83% 29.69% 25.34% 41.71% 59.03% 65.5% 72.38% 55.22%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.18 2.16 2.886 2.223 2.104 2.046 1.946 2.14
Change - 83.16% 33.58% -22.98% -5.36% -2.73% -4.9% 9.98%
Dividend per Share 1 0.9256 1.157 - 1.695 1.776 1.323 1.351 1.404
Change - 25% - - 4.78% -25.48% 2.13% 3.92%
Book Value Per Share 1 15.36 4.602 5.99 6.343 6.028 6.251 6.49 6.741
Change - -70.05% 30.15% 5.9% -4.96% 3.69% 3.83% 3.87%
EPS 1 0.7686 1.636 2.473 1.87 1.63 1.529 1.513 1.683
Change - 112.9% 51.11% -24.38% -12.83% -6.22% -1.01% 11.21%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 241,858,445 241,858,445 241,893,399 241,907,556 241,948,700 241,854,700 241,854,700 241,854,700
Announcement Date 22/03/21 21/03/22 13/03/23 10/03/24 04/03/25 - - -
1SAR
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 16.8x 17x
PBR 4.11x 3.96x
EV / Sales 3.91x 4.18x
Yield 5.15% 5.26%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
19
Last Close Price
25.68SAR
Average target price
28.29SAR
Spread / Average Target
+10.16%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise