Projected Income Statement: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -11,298 -11,467 -13,738 -8,238 -9,670 -10,342 -13,087 -16,287
Change - -1.5% -19.8% 40.03% -17.38% -6.95% -26.54% -24.45%
Announcement Date 22/03/22 22/03/23 20/03/24 28/03/25 25/03/26 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,914 2,517 1,754 2,145 2,245 2,770 2,843 2,925
Change - 31.47% -30.29% 22.26% 4.68% 23.39% 2.62% 2.88%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,787 6,129 2,761 2,682 4,438 8,074 6,399 8,103
Change - 61.85% -54.95% -2.87% 65.48% 81.94% -20.74% 26.62%
Announcement Date 22/03/22 22/03/23 20/03/24 28/03/25 25/03/26 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 27.49% 25.92% 25.21% 24.31% 24.27% 35.61% 26.87% 26.3%
EBIT Margin (%) 24.38% 22.53% 21.65% 19.69% 18.84% 26.65% 21.53% 21.41%
EBT Margin (%) 24.57% 24.51% 23.5% 19.23% 18.49% 28.6% 24.08% 24.57%
Net margin (%) 20.11% 19.69% 18.68% 14.92% 14.93% 22.95% 19.48% 19.85%
FCF margin (%) 11.04% 17.37% 8.08% 8.64% 15.03% 22.34% 18.22% 21.7%
FCF / Net Income (%) 54.87% 88.2% 43.26% 57.89% 100.66% 97.35% 93.51% 109.31%

Profitability

        
ROA 17.3% 15.96% 13.34% 9.55% 8.52% 14.99% 12.24% 12.04%
ROE 23.2% 21.73% 18.53% 13.22% 11.86% 19.49% 15.34% 15.14%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.58% 7.13% 5.13% 6.91% 7.6% 7.66% 8.09% 7.83%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 20.3% 27.51% 20.37% 28.42% 31.32% 21.52% 30.12% 29.79%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 50.55% 41.06% 63.55% 79.99% 50.6% 34.31% 44.43% 36.1%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.4769 0.7254 0.3804 0.4112 0.585 0.6106 0.8214 0.9521
Change - 52.09% -47.56% 8.1% 42.28% 4.37% 34.51% 15.92%
Dividend per Share 1 0.18 0.21 0.28 0.26 0.29 0.3975 0.365 0.3789
Change - 16.67% 33.33% -7.14% 11.54% 37.06% -8.18% 3.81%
Book Value Per Share 1 2.673 2.872 3.039 2.944 3.29 3.763 4.105 4.479
Change - 7.46% 5.82% -3.14% 11.75% 14.38% 9.1% 9.11%
EPS 1 0.5773 0.5831 0.5376 0.3946 0.3859 0.741 0.6051 0.6565
Change - 1% -7.8% -26.6% -2.21% 92.02% -18.34% 8.5%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 11,916,370 11,915,520 11,848,756 11,541,665 11,433,025 11,433,025 11,433,025 11,433,025
Announcement Date 22/03/22 22/03/23 20/03/24 28/03/25 25/03/26 - - -
1HKD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 11.9x 14.5x
PBR 2.34x 2.14x
EV / Sales 2.5x 2.49x
Yield 4.52% 4.15%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
23
Last Close Price
8.800HKD
Average target price
11.72HKD
Spread / Average Target
+33.16%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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