Energy: The blockage of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy transport, has pushed crude prices higher. At $100 for Brent and $95 for WTI, prices are back at levels last seen in 2022. The 2026 increase is now close to 70%. In the face of this price surge, the Trump administration is trying to calm the market. Washington has pledged to ensure ship security through naval escorts and is considering drawing on its strategic petroleum reserves. The United States has also granted waivers allowing the purchase of Russian oil stored on ships, notably destined for India. The move aims to free up floating stocks in Asia to ease pressure on supply. In this respect, the big winner from this crisis remains Russia. In addition, Saudi Arabia is reorganising the routing of part of its output toward the Red Sea to avoid the Strait of Hormuz blockage.  Even so, oil prices continue to rise. Insurers are cancelling coverage for vessels transiting the conflict zone, and it is a safe bet that military escorts will take time to be put in place. As long as flows do not resume normally through the Strait of Hormuz, the geopolitical risk premium will continue to underpin high prices.

Metals: Aluminium has moved above the $3,400 mark in London, driven by supply disruptions in the Middle East. Prices gained 5% last week. The closure of a smelter in Qatar and a halt to shipments from Bahrain: prices are reacting sharply higher, all the more so as inventories are at their lowest level since 2023. By contrast, copper is falling, weighed down by a rapid build-up in stocks signalling a short-term oversupply. A tonne of copper is trading around $12,900 (cash price) on the LME. In precious metals, gold is in choppy waters, hovering around $5,100 an ounce. On the one hand, the military escalation in the Middle East is supporting demand for gold, seen as a safe haven amid uncertainty. But on the other, a strong dollar and rising bond yields are weighing on the precious metal, which offers no yield. In addition, higher oil is fuelling inflation fears, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer.

Agricultural products: Agricultural markets are showing mixed trends this week. Soybeans are continuing their climb, supported by rising oil prices (a growing share of harvests is used to produce biofuels), while wheat remains under pressure because of abundant global supply. A bushel of wheat is trading slightly higher around 600 cents (May 2026 contract).