Projected Income Statement: Novartis AG

Forecast Balance Sheet: Novartis AG

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 8,191 9,034 12,011 17,944 23,867 31,432 28,259 21,590
Change - 10.29% 32.95% 49.4% 33.01% 31.7% -10.09% -23.6%
Announcement Date 02/02/22 01/02/23 31/01/24 31/01/25 04/02/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Novartis AG

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,378 1,198 1,060 1,366 1,548 1,774 1,971 2,212
Change - -13.06% -11.52% 28.87% 13.32% 14.57% 11.15% 12.22%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 13,282 11,945 13,179 16,253 17,596 15,537 16,932 19,122
Change - -10.07% 10.33% 23.32% 8.26% -11.7% 8.98% 12.93%
Announcement Date 02/02/22 01/02/23 31/01/24 31/01/25 04/02/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Novartis AG

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 35.34% 36.82% 38.44% 40.61% 41.32% 40.39% 41.17% 41.73%
EBIT Margin (%) 32.13% 32.97% 35.09% 37.69% 38.62% 37.82% 38.49% 39.13%
EBT Margin (%) 50.63% 16.56% 19.55% 26.37% 28.85% 28.25% 30.06% 31.24%
Net margin (%) 46.53% 13.76% 31.83% 23.08% 24.64% 24.64% 25.69% 26.97%
FCF margin (%) 25.73% 23.63% 28.24% 31.42% 31.05% 26.94% 27.57% 29.26%
FCF / Net Income (%) 55.29% 171.75% 88.72% 136.13% 125.98% 109.34% 107.28% 108.52%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.86% 10.71% 12.37% 15.58% 16.33% 13.75% 14.52% 15.11%
ROE 22.69% 21.03% 25.37% 34.74% 38.4% 35.81% 38.5% 39.73%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.45x 0.49x 0.67x 0.85x 1.02x 1.35x 1.12x 0.79x
Debt / Free cash flow 0.62x 0.76x 0.91x 1.1x 1.36x 2.02x 1.67x 1.13x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.67% 2.37% 2.27% 2.64% 2.73% 3.08% 3.21% 3.39%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 7.55% 6.44% 5.91% 6.5% 6.61% 7.61% 7.79% 8.11%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 10.37% 10.03% 8.04% 8.4% 8.8% 11.42% 11.64% 11.57%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 6.669 6.48 6.911 8.658 9.792 9.855 11.02 12.5
Change - -2.83% 6.65% 25.28% 13.1% 0.64% 11.83% 13.43%
Dividend per Share 1 3.36 3.5 3.823 3.856 4.762 4.35 4.542 4.774
Change - 4.17% 9.23% 0.88% 23.49% -8.65% 4.41% 5.12%
Book Value Per Share 1 30.28 28 22.83 21.64 24.18 24.91 26.61 29.38
Change - -7.55% -18.45% -5.2% 11.69% 3.03% 6.82% 10.43%
EPS 1 10.71 3.19 7.15 5.92 7.21 7.06 8.436 9.731
Change - -70.21% 124.14% -17.2% 21.79% -2.09% 19.49% 15.36%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,237,092 2,150,980 2,055,460 1,999,270 1,918,792 1,900,715 1,900,715 1,900,715
Announcement Date 02/02/22 01/02/23 31/01/24 31/01/25 04/02/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 20.5x 17.2x
PBR 5.81x 5.44x
EV / Sales 5.28x 4.91x
Yield 3% 3.14%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
23
Last Close Price
144.82USD
Average target price
152.29USD
Spread / Average Target
+5.16%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise