Projected Income Statement: Thai Oil

Forecast Balance Sheet: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 168,451 132,155 149,832 134,617 65,092 90,012 94,228 80,375
Change - -21.55% 13.38% -10.15% -51.65% 38.28% 4.68% -14.7%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 35,146 31,929 14,504 8,955 10,429 35,249 24,167 11,673
Change - -9.15% -54.58% -38.25% 16.45% 238% -31.44% -51.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -24,642 11,322 13,584 30,399 38,380 -19,994 -4,712 20,953
Change - 145.94% 19.99% 123.78% 26.25% -152.09% 76.43% 544.7%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.77% 9.82% 7.96% 4.5% 4.47% 7.26% 7.21% 7.31%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.62% 8.36% 6.3% 2.76% 2.43% 5.89% 4.91% 4.95%
EBT Margin (%) 4.37% 7.94% 5.17% 2.63% 4.24% 5.35% 4.24% 4.24%
Net margin (%) 3.64% 6.17% 4.14% 2.13% 3% 4.36% 3.34% 3.21%
FCF margin (%) -7.13% 2.14% 2.89% 6.51% 9.7% -4.57% -1.1% 4.24%
FCF / Net Income (%) -195.92% 34.66% 69.87% 305.26% 323.84% -104.83% -33.06% 132.07%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.76% 8.1% 4.5% 2.4% 3.49% 4.51% 3.09% 3.83%
ROE 10.61% 23.59% 11.89% 6.05% 8.7% 10.09% 6.87% 7.75%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 5.56x 2.54x 4.01x 6.41x 3.68x 2.83x 3.06x 2.22x
Debt / Free cash flow -6.84x 11.67x 11.03x 4.43x 1.7x -4.5x -20x 3.84x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 10.17% 6.03% 3.09% 1.92% 2.64% 8.05% 5.67% 2.36%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 115.96% 61.39% 38.82% 42.65% 58.97% 110.97% 78.57% 32.27%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -142.62% 282.02% 106.77% 29.46% 27.17% -176.3% -512.91% 55.71%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.152 20.69 12.57 17.62 21.85 8.676 9.447 14.92
Change - 301.61% -39.24% 40.11% 24.02% -60.29% 8.88% 57.96%
Dividend per Share 1 2.6 4 3.4 1.9 1.8 2.488 2.248 2.829
Change - 53.85% -15% -44.12% -5.26% 38.22% -9.66% 25.87%
Book Value Per Share 1 59.25 67.4 74.12 73.17 76.98 86.69 89.21 92.03
Change - 13.74% 9.97% -1.28% 5.2% 12.62% 2.9% 3.16%
EPS 1 6.17 15.63 8.7 4.46 6.53 8.505 6.069 7.093
Change - 153.32% -44.34% -48.74% 46.41% 30.24% -28.64% 16.87%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,040,028 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 6x 8.4x
PBR 0.59x 0.57x
EV / Sales 0.46x 0.48x
Yield 4.88% 4.41%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
49.25THB
Average target price
52.61THB
Spread / Average Target
+6.82%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise