Yves Sanquer

Rates: Beautiful curves

I've had enough of recession talks! For months, economists, pessimists and market-timers have all announced the crash of the decade, but nothing yet has come. US indices remain really high. Is "dumb money" (the equity market) right for once in the face of "smart money" (the fixed-income market)? Let's try to untangle all this.

October 16, 2023 at 05:56 pm

Rates: 336,000 jobs created?!

One of the advantages of writing a weekly column is to be able to take a step back from the multitude of macroeconomic data available. This week, we're going to take another look at the monthly US employment report published last Friday, and try to put it into perspective.

October 09, 2023 at 06:45 pm

Currencies: The Mexican peso takes a beating

The fall in oil prices has not made everyone happy. Countries whose economies are partly linked to raw materials have also seen their currencies depreciate at breakneck speed. Is this a reversal in the trend or an opportunity to reposition on the cheap? Find out below.

October 09, 2023 at 06:39 pm

Currencies: which way is the dollar going now?

September is finally over, and October is eagerly awaited. Classically dubbed "the bear killer month", October is often synonymous with rising equity markets. However, on the basis of recent movements (October 2022 and July 2023), S&P 500 peaks and troughs inversely coincide with reflection points on the dollar.

October 02, 2023 at 06:51 pm

Interest rates: The US 10-year hits 4.68%

One of the pillars of the current narrative is that inflation will rapidly return to around 2%, with the corollary that central banks will adopt a more accommodating stance. While recent economic statistics do indeed show a decline, the observed pace of disinflation does not seem compatible with a rate cut as early as 2024.

October 02, 2023 at 06:45 pm

Rates: It's the end of the party for central banks

The past two weeks have been marked by a festival of central bank activity. After the ECB, the much-anticipated Fed followed suit, before passing the torch to the central banks of Sweden, England and Switzerland, before closing with Japan.

September 25, 2023 at 06:37 pm

Currencies: It's starting to sting a bit

The Fed's hawkish stance increased pressure on European currencies such as the euro, sterling, Swiss franc and Swedish krona. As for the BOJ, its ongoing ultra-accommodating policy naturally weighed on the Japanese yen. Let's take a closer look.

September 25, 2023 at 06:32 pm

Currencies: the euro plummets

The probable end of the monetary tightening cycle in Europe has claimed its first victim. The euro has dropped 5.70% since its July highs, and the trend shows no signs of reversing any time soon.

September 18, 2023 at 06:55 pm

Rates: ECB raises rates for the last time

The European Central Bank soothed investors' sensibilities by raising its key rates for the tenth time to 4.5%, while warning that the breakeven point had certainly been reached. In other words, the monetary tightening cycle is coming to an end.

September 18, 2023 at 06:31 pm

Asian currencies remain under pressure

The accumulation of disappointing statistics from China is keeping all Asian currencies under pressure, including those linked to commodities. As for the dollar and the euro, they are currently testing turning points, which will set the trend for the end of the year.

September 04, 2023 at 02:00 pm

Rates: a well-oiled narrative (with no room for hiccups)

In light of the latest macroeconomic statistics, investors continue to favor a central scenario based on four pillars: the end of the monetary tightening cycle, followed by a rate cut as early as 2024, a soft landing for the US economy and inflation under control. It's a fine narrative, but beware of potential setbacks.

September 04, 2023 at 01:58 pm

Currencies: And despite everything, the US dollar proves resilient

At first glance, the headline may seem surprising, given that the dollar's recent rise is rooted in soaring interest rates on US debt. However, the recent meeting of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) is playing out an entirely different tune, the underlying force of which should not be overlooked.

August 28, 2023 at 05:56 pm

Rates: A very narrow path

Not too hot, not too cold. Like the children's tale, Goldilocks, investors love a happy medium. In this game, the path to a soft landing for the US economy is as tortuous as it is narrow. Here's how.

August 28, 2023 at 05:44 pm

Rates : When China wakes up

China is struggling to come out of the woodwork. Its many targeted stimulus policies are not having the desired effect, far from it. And the new rate cut initiated by the People's Bank of China will do nothing to change this, so timid does it seem.

August 21, 2023 at 07:10 pm

Currencies: Talk about a strategy!

Following on from my weekly commentary on interest rates, I wanted once again to make the link between monetary policy and the foreign exchange market. Due to diametrically opposed policies, the interest-rate differential between the USA and China has never been so wide since 2007, and this is weakening the yuan just as it continues to weaken the Japanese yen for the same reasons. Thinking they can prop up their currencies through massive intervention is as ineffective as it is costly.

August 21, 2023 at 07:04 pm

Rates: Goodbye inflation

The latest statistics from the United States have set the world alight. While the interest-rate market was logically the first to be impacted, all asset classes were equally affected, including gold, the dollar and equities.

July 17, 2023 at 05:57 pm

Currencies: The dollar is knocked out

The publication of a below-expectation level of inflation in the United States has claimed its first victim: the dollar is suffering a severe blow, to the point of relaunching the downward momentum initiated in the fourth quarter of 2022. On a broader scale, the US dollar fell against virtually all other G10 currencies.

July 17, 2023 at 05:54 pm

Currencies: The kiwi gets its mojo back

The loonie and the kiwi put on a show last week. The former lost ground against its main rivals, while the latter took a breath of fresh air. So much so that the kiwi-cad recovered almost 3% over the week. Is this just a blip or a new trend in the making? Let's take a closer look.

July 10, 2023 at 06:22 pm

Rates: Caution advised

We had to wait until the sixth day of July to see a clear bearish session on the equity markets. The reason? Poor economic statistics from the four corners of the globe and more hawkish than expected Fed minutes. However, the job market helped to limit the damage - at least for the time being.

July 10, 2023 at 05:56 pm

Interest rates: In Sintra, hawks no longer scare doves

For months, we've been told that recession would soon hit the developed economies, and that we should expect the worst on the stock market. Except that, for the time being, and with all due respect to the interest-rate market, the stock market is doing just fine.

July 03, 2023 at 05:23 pm

Currencies: What's happening to the Peso?

The Mexican Peso continues to sail under clear skies. Up over 12% against the dollar since the start of the year, it still has upside potential, much to the delight of carry trade enthusiasts. The rest of us will take advantage of any intermediate pullbacks to join the party.

July 03, 2023 at 05:18 pm