Projected Income Statement: China State Construction International Holdings Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: China State Construction International Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 48,618 - 51,689 56,825 61,959 63,606 60,030 67,261
Change - - - 9.94% 9.03% 2.66% -5.62% 12.05%
Announcement Date 25/03/22 21/03/23 21/03/24 21/03/25 26/03/26 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: China State Construction International Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 686.4 362.9 709.2 1,066 1,110 1,004 822.9 920.4
Change - -47.14% 95.44% 50.34% 4.14% -9.55% -18.06% 11.84%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -1,238 -150.7 -208.2 941.3 - 17,029 6,835 9,182
Change - 87.82% -38.11% 552.12% - - -59.87% 34.34%
Announcement Date 25/03/22 21/03/23 21/03/24 21/03/25 26/03/26 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: China State Construction International Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.11% 12.03% 12.81% 13.88% 14.15% 14.36% 14.31% 14.68%
EBIT Margin (%) 12.55% 11.36% 12.06% 13.05% 13.27% 13.48% 13.37% 13.41%
EBT Margin (%) 12.14% 10.57% 10.64% 11.24% 11.91% 11.65% 11.94% 11.75%
Net margin (%) 8.8% 7.8% 8.06% 8.13% 8.55% 8.44% 8.67% 8.53%
FCF margin (%) -1.6% -0.15% -0.18% 0.82% - 14.71% 5.46% 7.24%
FCF / Net Income (%) -18.2% -1.89% -2.27% 10.06% - 174.17% 63.01% 84.85%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.58% 3.55% 3.83% 3.59% 3.16% 3.04% 3.06% 3.05%
ROE 12% 12.26% 13.35% 12.87% 11.79% 11.26% 11.75% 10.58%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 4.8x - 3.55x 3.56x 3.85x 3.82x 3.35x 3.61x
Debt / Free cash flow -39.27x - -248.28x 60.37x - 3.74x 8.78x 7.33x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 0.89% 0.36% 0.62% 0.93% 0.98% 0.87% 0.66% 0.73%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 6.77% 2.96% 4.87% 6.67% 6.9% 6.04% 4.59% 4.94%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -55.45% -240.71% -340.64% 113.27% - 5.9% 12.04% 10.02%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 -0.1093 0.4208 0.0995 0.3985 - 1.076 0.6911 0.706
Change - 485% -76.35% 300.5% - - -35.77% 2.16%
Dividend per Share 1 0.405 0.48 0.56 0.615 0.625 0.6722 0.7019 0.7603
Change - 18.52% 16.67% 9.82% 1.63% 7.56% 4.41% 8.32%
Book Value Per Share 1 11.2 11.47 14.74 15.17 17.23 17.86 18.28 19.89
Change - 2.42% 28.49% 2.92% 13.6% 3.61% 2.4% 8.77%
EPS 1 1.349 1.58 1.82 1.86 1.858 1.848 2.061 2.058
Change - 17.09% 15.19% 2.2% -0.12% -0.54% 11.54% -0.15%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 5,037,617 5,037,617 5,037,617 5,037,617 5,282,217 5,282,217 5,282,217 5,282,217
Announcement Date 25/03/22 21/03/23 21/03/24 21/03/25 26/03/26 - - -
1HKD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 4.66x 4.18x
PBR 0.48x 0.47x
EV / Sales 0.94x 0.84x
Yield 7.81% 8.16%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
9
Last Close Price
8.605HKD
Average target price
10.96HKD
Spread / Average Target
+27.37%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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