Yves Sanquer

Currencies: Fears of stagflation

The narrative surrounding the US economy is slowly shifting from a soft landing to possible stagflation. While the Trump trade was supposed to make room for small caps and the dollar, we have to admit that this scenario is struggling to materialize.

February 24, 2025 at 02:34 pm

Rates: No further cuts in sight

The release of a rising consumer price index provided further evidence that the Fed intends to pause its rate-cutting cycle. Moreover, Jerome Powell took advantage of his Senate hearing to hammer home the point.

February 17, 2025 at 02:30 pm

Currencies: A little more effort

The recent actions of the White House now seem to have only a limited effect on the dollar's trend. While the dollar is still benefiting from a favorable environment (high interest rates, tariffs), its upward momentum has waned considerably. The tipping point is near.

February 17, 2025 at 02:24 pm

Currencies: Tariffs, again

The dollar continues to move in step with President Trump's tweets on the introduction - and scale - of tariffs with his main trading partners. At the moment, this massive negotiating weapon has not yet done too much damage. But for how long?

February 10, 2025 at 02:30 pm

Interest rates: A wind of optimism

Two weeks ago, Deepseek threw a spanner in the works by proposing an open-source generative AI. But has the Chinese application really reshuffled the deck? The game is far from over.

February 10, 2025 at 01:17 pm

Rates: ECB stays one step ahead

Last week was marked by meetings between the US and European central banks. Although the score was somewhat different, they did not take the market by surprise - quite the contrary.

February 03, 2025 at 02:43 pm

Currencies: Tariffs have taken the wind out of the sails (for now)

All was (almost) well until the announcement of an effective tariff increase. This should not have come as a surprise to the financial community, but clearly it did. Lulled into sweet illusions of leniency, it woke up with a hangover.

February 03, 2025 at 02:34 pm

Currencies: Paradigm shift?

Between future central bank announcements, potential AI woes with the rise of DeepSeek and Donald Trump's economic policies, currency traders have a lot of data to digest, to the point of making the dollar wobble. Is this the prelude to a turnaround?

January 28, 2025 at 01:59 pm

Rate: Double play

This week could be the first serious test for the markets, with successive meetings of the US and European central banks. In the meantime, we offer some additional information following on from last week's article.

January 28, 2025 at 01:55 pm

Currencies: The dollar still stands head and shoulders above the rest

Despite the easing in US bond yields, the dollar is not yet showing any notable signs of a trend reversal. However, the presence of divergences prompts caution, and we recommend not increasing our exposure any further.

January 20, 2025 at 02:37 pm

Rates: Who wants American debt?

The event not to be missed last week was undoubtedly the publication of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the CPI came in broadly in line with expectations, it also set the world alight, triggering a sharp easing in interest rates and a boost to the equity market. Let's take a closer look.

January 20, 2025 at 02:28 pm

Rates: A lesson to ponder

Over the past few days, the yield on British 10-year bonds, commonly known as Gilt, has risen to touch the symbolic 5% threshold. Fears about the ability to meet debt repayments against a backdrop of sluggish growth are a lesson for the French government.

January 13, 2025 at 07:05 pm

Currencies: Two rooms, two atmospheres

While the rise in bond yields in the United States favors the dollar, the parallel rise in the United Kingdom is weighing on sterling. The cause is a struggling economy, which is weighing on the government's ability to balance its budget.

January 13, 2025 at 07:00 pm

Currencies: Back to parity?

Unfortunately, there was no miracle. The Fed confirmed that a pause in its monetary easing cycle was clearly on the cards, given the continuing strength of the US economy and the risk of a return to inflation. The result: a laughing dollar and a crying euro.

January 06, 2025 at 02:42 pm

Interest rates: Christine stays the course

As widely anticipated by the financial community, the European Central Bank cut its main key rates for the third time in a row. It has to be said that the European economy is in dire need of a monetary boost.

December 16, 2024 at 08:41 pm

Currencies: It's very quiet

The dollar continues to benefit from favorable winds, but this does not yet call into question our consolidation scenario. Forex traders seem to be holding back, waiting to decipher the language that Jerome Powell will use this Wednesday following his interest rate decision.

December 16, 2024 at 02:43 pm

Rates: Easing is the order of the day

Goldilocks?-style macroeconomic statistics continue to please investors, supporting the rise in equity markets on the one hand, and the easing of interest rates on the other. For the time being, fears linked to the debt wall seem to have taken a back seat.

December 09, 2024 at 02:24 pm

Currencies: A non-event

The French political drama took center stage last week with the government's resignation after a no-confidence vote. Yet, the anticipated disaster on the CAC 40 has not materialized. The French stock market is breathing a sigh of relief, as the feared extraordinary tax on major corporate profits has not come to pass. Meanwhile, the euro is staging a modest comeback.

December 09, 2024 at 02:13 pm

Rates: Time to shake things up

Between the two, my heart sways. Clearly, this could be the current mantra of investors, who have never been so undecided about the next steps in US monetary policy. It has to be said that Jerome Powell's latest outing didn't exactly reassure them, but is that a valid reason?

November 25, 2024 at 06:43 pm

Currencies: Is the dollar calming down?

The appointment of Scott Bessent as head of the US Treasury could well be the catalyst to calm the dollar's ardor. Technically, the dollar is trying to make a break for it, but if you followed last week's article, you know that it's not the case. At least for the time being.

November 25, 2024 at 06:42 pm

Rates: Ambient skepticism

And that's three. After the White House, the Republicans won the House of Representatives and the Senate, giving the future 47th President of the United States the means to develop his policies. However, relations with the US Central Bank promise to be stormy, as was the case during the previous cohabitation between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell.

November 18, 2024 at 07:17 pm