Projected Income Statement: Thai Oil

Forecast Balance Sheet: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 168,451 132,155 149,832 134,617 65,092 82,360 93,769 82,430
Change - -21.55% 13.38% -10.15% -51.65% 26.53% 13.85% -12.09%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 35,146 31,929 14,504 8,955 10,429 36,651 24,167 11,673
Change - -9.15% -54.58% -38.25% 16.45% 251.44% -34.06% -51.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -24,642 11,322 13,584 30,399 38,380 -21,953 -3,946 19,416
Change - 145.94% 19.99% 123.78% 26.25% -157.2% 82.03% 592.1%
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Thai Oil

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 8.77% 9.82% 7.96% 4.5% 4.47% 9.66% 7.37% 7.62%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.62% 8.36% 6.3% 2.76% 2.43% 7.46% 4.99% 4.97%
EBT Margin (%) 4.37% 7.94% 5.17% 2.63% 4.24% 7.52% 4.38% 4.33%
Net margin (%) 3.64% 6.17% 4.14% 2.13% 3% 5.37% 3.5% 3.39%
FCF margin (%) -7.13% 2.14% 2.89% 6.51% 9.7% -4.73% -0.91% 3.97%
FCF / Net Income (%) -195.92% 34.66% 69.87% 305.26% 323.84% -88.08% -26.09% 117.03%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.76% 8.1% 4.5% 2.4% 3.49% 7.6% 3.14% 3.46%
ROE 10.61% 23.59% 11.89% 6.05% 8.7% 13.97% 7.35% 8.25%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 5.56x 2.54x 4.01x 6.41x 3.68x 1.84x 2.94x 2.21x
Debt / Free cash flow -6.84x 11.67x 11.03x 4.43x 1.7x -3.75x -23.77x 4.25x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 10.17% 6.03% 3.09% 1.92% 2.64% 7.89% 5.59% 2.38%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 115.96% 61.39% 38.82% 42.65% 58.97% 81.7% 75.89% 31.29%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -142.62% 282.02% 106.77% 29.46% 27.17% -166.95% -612.52% 60.12%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 5.152 20.69 12.57 17.62 21.85 14.55 9.642 15.15
Change - 301.61% -39.24% 40.11% 24.02% -33.41% -33.72% 57.14%
Dividend per Share 1 2.6 4 3.4 1.9 1.8 3.378 2.51 3.196
Change - 53.85% -15% -44.12% -5.26% 87.66% -25.69% 27.33%
Book Value Per Share 1 59.25 67.4 74.12 73.17 76.98 89.44 92.21 97.5
Change - 13.74% 9.97% -1.28% 5.2% 16.2% 3.09% 5.74%
EPS 1 6.17 15.63 8.7 4.46 6.53 10.63 6.556 7.255
Change - 153.32% -44.34% -48.74% 46.41% 62.79% -38.32% 10.66%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,040,028 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836 2,233,836
Announcement Date 15/02/22 10/02/23 14/02/24 14/02/25 12/02/26 - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 6.02x 9.76x
PBR 0.72x 0.69x
EV / Sales 0.49x 0.55x
Yield 5.28% 3.92%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
18
Last Close Price
64.00THB
Average target price
59.45THB
Spread / Average Target
-7.11%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise